Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that India's economy is projected to return to a 7 per cent-plus growth trajectory by 2027-28 (FY28), or sooner if external conditions improve, despite near-term challenges from the West Asia crisis.
'When I look at India's relative valuations, these are by far the lowest I have seen in my 35-year career.' 'The relative 12-month trailing performance is among the weakest I have seen, and foreign investor positioning is at a 16-17 year low.'
'You have seen the retrenchments by big corporates in the IT industry because they are not getting enough offers.' 'MSMEs in the manufacturing sector are really struggling. They do not know what to do. They are not able to predict what will happen tomorrow.'
Despite a sharp increase in import duties on gold and silver to 15 per cent, the precious metals are trading at significant discounts in the domestic market, with gold seeing discounts of up to $200 an ounce and silver up to $6 an ounce.
A convoy of India-bound ships carrying crude oil and gas was stopped by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to several vessels returning to the Persian Gulf.
Much will depend on how the protagonists use the current interlude to work proactively for the beginning of a durable settlement or, on the contrary, prepare for a new round of escalation, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for citizens to make economic sacrifices in response to the West Asia conflict, calling it 'evidence of failure'. Gandhi accused Modi of shifting responsibility onto the public and being incapable of running the country.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is in India for a BRICS foreign ministers' meeting, where discussions will focus on the escalating crisis in West Asia and its impact on global energy supply chains.
Markets face risk of a prolonged bear phase as oil shocks and geopolitical tensions test inflation, growth and investor confidence globally, points out Debashis Basu.
Analysts say long-term investors may still benefit, but recommend limiting bullion exposure to around 10 per cent.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the Sensex tumbling over 1,300 points, driven by escalating crude oil prices due to US-Iran tensions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for austerity measures, which amplified investor concerns about India's economic outlook.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected a 6.9 per cent GDP growth for the current financial year, citing concerns over commodity prices and supply chain disruptions stemming from the West Asia crisis.
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The escalating crisis in West Asia and its impact on the global energy supply chain are expected to dominate deliberations at a two-day meeting of BRICS foreign ministers to be hosted by India.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, saw gains in early trade, driven by strong performance in banking shares and positive sentiment from Asian markets, alongside optimism surrounding the ongoing US-China Summit.
Infosys Q4 results beat estimates, but weak FY27 guidance triggers cautious brokerage outlook and target price cuts. Should investors worry?
Foreign investors have aggressively sold off Indian equities, withdrawing over 48,213 crore in the first 10 days of April, following a record 1.17 lakh crore outflow in March, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising crude oil prices, and global inflation concerns.
A foreign brokerage warns that sustained crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel could push India's inflation above the RBI's tolerance level, potentially triggering interest rate hikes.
Oil still lubricates the global economy and could make it seize up. Prices above $110 a barrel raise the spectre of previous shocks. Judged by fundamental supply and demand, there is no reason for prices to remain so high. But, a sustained spike would be a big problem for the global economy.
India's fiscal deficit is projected to reach 4.5 per cent of GDP for the current fiscal year, exceeding the budgeted target, as the government's policy responses to the West Asia conflict are expected to strain public finances, according to research firm BMI.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar addresses the Indian Ocean Conference, expressing deep concern over the West Asia conflict and its economic repercussions on energy, trade, and food security. India calls for a swift return to peace and opposes targeting civilians and infrastructure.
A new report suggests that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could significantly impact India's GDP growth and inflation.
'The West Asia or the Gulf crisis has shown that what we develop as national infrastructure when things are not as bad as they could be, we forget to plan for adversities.'
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday warned that India's limited crude oil reserves of about 100 million barrels - sufficient for only 40-45 days of consumption - leave the country particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in West Asia.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged for restraint in the use of petro products due to the West Asia crisis, emphasising the need to save foreign exchange and reduce the impact of war. He also highlighted India's progress in solar power and ethanol blending, while assuring support to Telangana's development.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
A senior Russian official has stated that Russia is prepared to supply fertilisers and other agricultural products to countries in the Global South and East, following concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacting global fertiliser exports and food security.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
A NITI Aayog report indicates that India's digital public infrastructure (DPI) initiatives could contribute 4 per cent of the GDP by 2030, a significant increase from the current 1 per cent.
The Trump administration has announced a temporary authorisation for countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea, aiming to stabilise global energy markets amid rising oil prices and tensions with Iran.
It may now be time to question the price India is paying for Israel's disregard of the serious undermining of India's energy security, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
The Indian government has implemented several measures to mitigate external risks, support the balance of payments, and maintain macroeconomic stability amidst the ongoing West Asia crisis, according to Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary.
The Indian government is considering additional relief packages for vulnerable sectors like MSMEs to mitigate the impact of the ongoing West Asia crisis on the economy and inflation.
U.S. economic growth braked more sharply than expected in the first quarter.
India will maintain multiple sources for crude oil purchases and diversify them to ensure stability in the supply chain with national interests remaining the "guiding factor" for the procurement, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said.
Moody's Investors Service has warned that India, along with the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are highly vulnerable to volatile food and energy prices in the Asia-Pacific region as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt supplies and raise the cost of agricultural products, especially cereals and vegetable oils, as well as fertilizers and other agricultural inputs. This is so because these countries have a higher weighting of energy and food prices in their consumer price index (CPI) baskets, Moody's said in its report released on Tuesday. The weighting of energy and food in overall Indian CPI stands at over 55 per cent.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has urged India to take the lead in bringing peace to West Asia, highlighting the UAE's role in stalling BRICS consensus on the conflict. Gharibabadi also discussed a new framework with Oman for merchant vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflict may disrupt Budget 2026-2027 projections, squeezing revenues and raising subsidies, prompting fiscal adjustments and potential reforms, echoing lessons from the Covid-era shock, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed immediate demand-side measures, including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced air travel, to mitigate the impact of a global oil supply shock caused by Middle East disruptions.
